LONGRUN
ABOUT LONG RUN
In recent years, the landscape of sports betting predictions has undergone a significant transformation, moving away from the conventional approach that focused on short-term wins and win rates (winning more bets than you lose).
This shift represents a fundamental change in how profitable tipsters approach sports wagering, emphasizing long-term profitability and value betting over win rate.
THE OLD WAY
SHORT-TERM WINS AND WINRATE
Traditionally, sports betting tipsters have been synonymous with the pursuit of a high winrate, believing that a string of successful bets would lead to substantial profits.
This approach, however, makes it appear good on paper, being able to show more wins than losses on a spreadsheet, but that does not correlate with profit because usually the odds are not shown on those charts, and that is what dictates profitability.
Those tipsters also do not talk about the concept of variance (the inherent unpredictability in sports outcomes). Variance causes losing months even in long-term winning bettors and tipsters, and this concept is avoided and overlooked, and everyone pretends that losing months never occur.
THE NEW WAY
LONG-TERM PROFIT THROUGH VALUE BETTING
The new way of sports betting introduces a more strategic and sustainable approach to wagering. Key elements of this approach include:
VALUE BETS
Value bets are the core of this change. We are not seeking the most probable outcomes; we are looking for bets with value. These are bets in which the odds offered by bookmakers are undervalued in your favor, thus presenting a positive expected value in the long term.
LONG-TERM FOCUS
The new method encourages a patient, long-term perspective. It recognizes that sports betting is a marathon rather than a sprint. By consistently identifying value bets, bettors can gradually accumulate profits over time, mitigating the impact of short-term losses.
RISK MANAGEMENT
The new approach takes variance into account and manages it effectively. By focusing on value bets and bankroll management, bettors minimize the role of luck and volatility in their betting strategies. It's about looking at sports betting as an investment, rather than an impulsive or risky pursuit..
WHY LONG RUN WAS CREATED
We aimed to provide a transparent and high-quality service and product, steering clear of services that merely sell hot air.
We aim to discuss topics like losing months, variance, and other aspects of the sports betting world that are often overlooked.
Thanks to having this approach, in recent months, we have achieved the following results.
RESULTS 2023
JANUARY +11.40
FEBRUARY +10.45
MARCH +9.08
APRIL +5.43
MAY +10.11
JUNE +15.57
JULY +19.92
AUGUST -8.07
SEPTEMBER +6.24
OCTOBER +7.12
NOVEMBER +13.64
DECEMBER +3.15
RESULTS SHOWED IN BETTING UNITS.
"I have been following Long Run's predictions for 5 months and so far I haven't had a negative month. But with Felix's educational videos I've learnt that negative months will happen and that this is a long term game. You will make money some days, lose money some others, but in the long-term you will make money if you follow a winning strategy"
TYLER REYNOLDS